← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, Apr 11, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: M. Oliver
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 65% | 68% | 1.44 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 21% | 4.33 | fair |
| Bournemouth win | 13% | 11% | 7.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal −1 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Bournemouth −1 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 54% | 1.57 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 46% | 2.38 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Eli Junior Kroupi · Bournemouth |
| 35' | ⚽ (pen) | Viktor Gyökeres · Arsenal |
| 74' | ⚽ | Alex Scott · Bournemouth |
| 77' | 🟨 | Adrien Truffert · Bournemouth |
| 79' | 🟨 | Eli Junior Kroupi · Bournemouth |
| 80' | 🟨 | Viktor Gyökeres · Arsenal |
| 90' | 🟨 | James Hill · Bournemouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 18 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arsenal | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Emirates Stadium |
| coach days | 284.00 | 1015.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.16 | 2.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.58 |
| elo | 2001.28 | 1702.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 22.49 | -9.05 |
| eye test v1 | 0.58 | 0.21 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 64.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.81 |
| league points | 70.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 14.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 57.00 |
| rest days | 3.69 | 21.65 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 2.26 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.29 | 0.66 |
| solidity v1 | 1.30 | 0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.25 | 25.25 |
| state index | 1.89 | 0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.24 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 151.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.86 | 1.65 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.52 | 1.73 |