← Premier League 2025-26 · Fri, Apr 10, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Gillett
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham win | 54% | 49% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.80 | fair |
| Wolves win | 21% | 24% | 4.50 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| West Ham −0.5 | 54% | 1.75 |
| Wolves −0.5 | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 54% | 1.83 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 46% | 2.03 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Jean-Ricner Bellegarde · Wolves |
| 20' | 🟨 | Yerson Mosquera · Wolves |
| 31' | 🟨 | Mateus Fernandes · West Ham |
| 42' | ⚽ | Konstantinos Mavropanos · West Ham |
| 52' | 🟨 | Valentín Castellanos · West Ham |
| 66' | ⚽ | Valentín Castellanos · West Ham |
| 68' | ⚽ | Valentín Castellanos · West Ham |
| 83' | ⚽ | Konstantinos Mavropanos · West Ham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 14 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Ham | Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| venue | London Stadium |
| coach days | 283.00 | 252.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 1.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1798.10 | 1749.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.70 | 48.93 |
| eye test v1 | -0.64 | -0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.56 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.90 | 55.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.72 |
| league points | 29.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.60 | 40.80 |
| rest days | 19.20 | 24.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 0.94 | 0.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.60 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.30 | -0.67 |
| solidity v1 | -0.66 | -0.47 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.46 | 26.18 |
| state index | 0.37 | 0.71 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.36 | -0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 188.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.44 | 1.81 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.52 | 0.92 |