← Premier League 2025-26 · Sun, Mar 22, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Taylor
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle win | 61% | 64% | 1.55 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 20% | 4.20 | fair |
| Sunderland win | 16% | 17% | 5.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sunderland −1 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Newcastle −1 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 63% | 1.67 | value: +5% |
| Under | 43% | 37% | 2.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Anthony Gordon · Newcastle |
| 44' | 🟨 | Trai Hume · Sunderland |
| 57' | ⚽ | Chemsdine Talbi · Sunderland |
| 82' | 🟨 | Omar Alderete · Sunderland |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joelinton · Newcastle |
| 90' | 🟨 | Reinildo Mandava · Sunderland |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lutsharel Geertruida · Sunderland |
| 90' | 🟨 | Noah Sadiki · Sunderland |
| 90' | 🟨 | Brian Brobbey · Sunderland |
| 90' | ⚽ | Brian Brobbey · Sunderland |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 9 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 19 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Newcastle | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.53 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | St. James' Park |
| coach days |
| 1602.00 |
| 629.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.68 | 1.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1780.97 | 1591.25 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.77 | -8.77 |
| eye test v1 | 0.50 | -0.84 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.43 | 0.08 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 60.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.77 |
| league points | 42.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.40 | 42.40 |
| rest days | 3.76 | 7.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.00 | -0.69 |
| solidity v1 | -1.50 | -0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 26.90 | 24.53 |
| state index | 0.42 | -0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.26 | -0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 16.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.14 | 1.79 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.55 | 1.13 |