← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, Mar 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Kavanagh
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham win | 61% | 65% | 1.55 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 23% | 4.33 | fair |
| Burnley win | 17% | 12% | 5.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fulham −1 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Burnley −1 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 56% | 1.67 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 44% | 2.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | 🟨 | Josh Laurent · Burnley |
| 55' | 🟨 | Antonee Robinson · Fulham |
| 60' | ⚽ | Zian Flemming · Burnley |
| 64' | 🟨 | James Ward-Prowse · Burnley |
| 67' | ⚽ | Joshua King · Fulham |
| 73' | ⚽ | Harry Wilson · Fulham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alex Iwobi · Fulham |
| 90' | 🟥 | Josh Laurent · Burnley |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Raúl Jiménez · Fulham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 6 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fulham | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Craven Cottage |
| coach days | 1724.00 | 232.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 1.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1863.46 | 1746.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.45 | 9.46 |
| eye test v1 | -0.22 | -0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.02 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.50 | 58.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.66 |
| league points | 41.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 38.40 |
| rest days | 6.04 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.37 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -6.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.41 | -0.88 |
| solidity v1 | 0.66 | -0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 28.63 | 28.11 |
| state index | 0.72 | 0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.31 | -0.87 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| travel km | — | 290.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.23 | 1.98 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.45 | 0.91 |