← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, Mar 21, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: D. England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 43% | 44% | 2.20 | fair |
| Brighton win | 31% | 28% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Liverpool +0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Brighton +0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 56% | 1.57 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 44% | 2.38 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Danny Welbeck · Brighton |
| 25' | 🟨 | Yankuba Minteh · Brighton |
| 30' | ⚽ | Miloš Kerkez · Liverpool |
| 45' | 🟨 | Diego Gómez · Brighton |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ibrahima Konaté · Liverpool |
| 48' | 🟨 | Danny Welbeck · Brighton |
| 56' | ⚽ | Danny Welbeck · Brighton |
| 61' | 🟨 | Jeremie Frimpong · Liverpool |
| 68' | 🟨 | Alexis Mac Allister · Liverpool |
| 79' | 🟨 | Dominik Szoboszlai · Liverpool |
| 85' | 🟨 | Lewis Dunk · |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brighton | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.60 |
| venue | Amex Stadium |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mats Wieffer · Brighton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Federico Chiesa · Liverpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 658.00 |
| 658.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 4.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1722.72 | 1857.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.29 | -11.13 |
| eye test v1 | 0.07 | 1.76 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.15 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.50 | 63.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 2.12 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.69 |
| league points | 40.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 83.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.80 | 58.80 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 2.69 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 17.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.18 | 1.34 |
| solidity v1 | 1.15 | 0.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 8.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 8.00 |
| squad age | 28.38 | 27.10 |
| state index | 0.68 | 0.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.56 | -0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.34 |
| travel km | — | 346.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.08 | 2.31 |