← Premier League 2025-26 · Fri, Mar 20, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Attwell
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 44% | 44% | 2.15 | fair |
| Bournemouth win | 31% | 34% | 3.10 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 25% | 22% | 3.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Man United +0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Bournemouth +0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 63% | 1.53 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 37% | 2.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Casemiro · Man United |
| 59' | 🟨 | Álex Jiménez · Bournemouth |
| 61' | ⚽ (pen) | Bruno Fernandes · Man United |
| 67' | ⚽ | Ryan Christie · Bournemouth |
| 71' | ⚽ (og) | James Hill · Man United |
| 78' | 🟥 | Harry Maguire · Man United |
| 81' | ⚽ (pen) | Eli Junior Kroupi · Bournemouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Adam Smith · Bournemouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Benjamin Šeško · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 8 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bournemouth | Man United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Vitality Stadium |
| coach days | 993.00 | 231.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.72 | 2.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1701.40 | 1792.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.68 | 15.83 |
| eye test v1 | 0.05 | 0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.00 | 63.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| league points | 41.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 57.20 |
| rest days | 6.21 | 5.25 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.37 | 1.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.43 | 0.69 |
| solidity v1 | -0.00 | 0.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 25.49 | 27.03 |
| state index | 0.51 | 0.97 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.10 | 0.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 304.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.89 | 1.12 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.63 | 1.31 |