← Premier League 2025-26 · Sun, Mar 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Taylor
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 56% | 55% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 20% | 4.10 | fair |
| Aston Villa win | 21% | 26% | 4.50 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Man United −0.75 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Aston Villa −0.75 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 61% | 1.62 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 39% | 2.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 41' | 🟨 | Ollie Watkins · Aston Villa |
| 53' | ⚽ | Casemiro · Man United |
| 60' | 🟨 | Casemiro · Man United |
| 64' | ⚽ | Ross Barkley · Aston Villa |
| 69' | 🟨 | Emiliano Buendía · Aston Villa |
| 71' | ⚽ | Matheus Cunha · Man United |
| 72' | 🟨 | Leny Yoro · Man United |
| 81' | ⚽ | Benjamin Šeško · Man United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Harry Maguire · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 9 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 5 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man United | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Old Trafford |
| coach days | 226.00 | 1230.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.25 | 2.80 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1779.08 | 1799.37 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.24 | -34.82 |
| eye test v1 | 0.80 | -0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | -0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.40 | 53.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.79 |
| league points | 51.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 17.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.20 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.60 | 54.40 |
| rest days | 10.74 | 2.84 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.76 | 1.76 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.20 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.96 | 0.38 |
| solidity v1 | 0.85 | 0.10 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 26.76 | 27.92 |
| state index | 1.07 | 0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.74 | 0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 109.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 1.34 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.45 | 0.91 |