← Premier League 2025-26 · Thu, Mar 5, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Madley
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 39% | 35% | 2.45 | fair |
| Crystal Palace win | 33% | 30% | 2.88 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 35% | 3.30 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Tottenham +0 | 54% | 1.78 |
| Crystal Palace +0 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 54% | 1.93 | value: +5% |
| Under | 50% | 46% | 1.93 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Souza · Tottenham |
| 22' | 🟨 | Jørgen Strand Larsen · Crystal Palace |
| 25' | 🟨 | Pape Matar Sarr · Tottenham |
| 34' | ⚽ | Dominic Solanke · Tottenham |
| 38' | 🟥 | Micky van de Ven · Tottenham |
| 40' | ⚽ (pen) | Ismaïla Sarr · Crystal Palace |
| 45' | ⚽ | Jørgen Strand Larsen · Crystal Palace |
| 45' | ⚽ | Ismaïla Sarr · Crystal Palace |
| 82' | 🟨 | Yves Bissouma · Tottenham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nathaniel Clyne · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 12 | Shots | 9 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tottenham | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| coach days |
| 124.00 |
| 763.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.31 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1685.22 | 1674.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -35.39 | -11.72 |
| eye test v1 | -0.54 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.36 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.00 | 57.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.75 |
| league points | 29.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 81.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 60.40 |
| rest days | 4.25 | 4.25 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 1.25 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.60 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.48 | 0.79 |
| solidity v1 | -1.55 | 0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.13 | 26.11 |
| state index | -0.45 | 0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.30 | 0.90 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 22.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.14 | 1.18 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.01 | 1.47 |