← Premier League 2025-26 · Wed, Mar 4, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: D. England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 69% | 65% | 1.38 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 20% | 5.00 | fair |
| Nott'm Forest win | 12% | 14% | 8.00 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nott'm Forest −1.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Man City −1.25 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 55% | 1.62 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 45% | 2.30 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | ⚽ | Antoine Semenyo · Man City |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ibrahim Sangaré · Nott'm Forest |
| 56' | ⚽ | Morgan Gibbs-White · Nott'm Forest |
| 60' | 🟨 | Murillo · Nott'm Forest |
| 62' | ⚽ | Rodri · Man City |
| 63' | 🟨 | Nikola Milenković · Nott'm Forest |
| 76' | ⚽ | Elliot Anderson · Nott'm Forest |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matz Sels · Nott'm Forest |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 6 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man City | Nott'm Forest |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.60 |
| venue | Etihad Stadium |
| coach days |
| 3533.00 |
| 184.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 2.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1909.30 | 1673.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.26 | -2.58 |
| eye test v1 | 0.78 | 0.88 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | -0.52 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.90 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.70 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.74 |
| league points | 59.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.00 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.20 | 50.60 |
| rest days | 4.08 | 3.23 |
| scorer concentration | 0.37 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.11 | 0.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 6.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 18.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.37 | 0.70 |
| solidity v1 | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 26.58 | 26.28 |
| state index | 1.51 | 0.22 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.78 | -0.84 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.40 |
| travel km | — | 93.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.15 | 1.14 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.91 | 1.65 |