← Premier League 2025-26 · Sun, Mar 1, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: D. England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 62% | 56% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 26% | 4.20 | value: +8% |
| Chelsea win | 16% | 19% | 6.00 | value: +12% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal −1 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Chelsea −1 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 65% | 1.67 | value: +8% |
| Under | 43% | 35% | 2.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 21' | ⚽ | William Saliba · Arsenal |
| 45' | ⚽ (og) | Piero Hincapié · Chelsea |
| 59' | 🟨 | Cole Palmer · Chelsea |
| 65' | 🟨 | Jorrel Hato · Chelsea |
| 66' | ⚽ | Jurriën Timber · Arsenal |
| 67' | 🟨 | Pedro Neto · Chelsea |
| 70' | 🟨 | Pedro Neto · Chelsea |
| 70' | 🟥 | Pedro Neto · Chelsea |
| 75' | 🟨 | Gabriel Magalhães · Arsenal |
| 79' | 🟨 | Enzo Fernández · Chelsea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 10 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arsenal | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Emirates Stadium |
| coach days |
| 243.00 |
| 212.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.29 | 3.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1974.02 | 1832.53 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.38 | 6.95 |
| eye test v1 | 0.46 | 0.88 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.39 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 50.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.48 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.72 |
| league points | 61.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 90.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.20 | 64.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.06 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 2.18 | 1.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.64 | 2.29 |
| solidity v1 | 1.42 | 0.30 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.85 | 24.88 |
| state index | 1.68 | 0.98 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.46 | 1.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 9.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.58 | 1.09 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.59 | 2.66 |