← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Attwell
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle win | 54% | 60% | 1.75 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 25% | 21% | 3.80 | fair |
| Everton win | 22% | 19% | 4.33 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle −0.5 | 54% | 1.75 |
| Everton −0.5 | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 53% | 1.80 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 47% | 2.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Jarrad Branthwaite · Everton |
| 32' | ⚽ | Jacob Ramsey · Newcastle |
| 34' | ⚽ | Beto · Everton |
| 53' | 🟨 | Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall · Everton |
| 61' | 🟨 | Joe Willock · Newcastle |
| 67' | 🟨 | James Garner · Everton |
| 82' | ⚽ | Jacob Murphy · Newcastle |
| 83' | ⚽ | Thierno Barry · Everton |
| 88' | 🟨 | Dan Burn · Newcastle |
| 90' | 🟨 | Thierno Barry · Everton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 17 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Newcastle | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.53 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | St. James' Park |
| coach days | 1580.00 | 242.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.17 | 2.55 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1777.20 | 1675.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.06 | -8.78 |
| eye test v1 | 1.88 | 0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.68 | 0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.30 | 68.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.70 |
| league points | 36.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 3.79 | 4.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.37 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.49 | 0.27 |
| solidity v1 | -0.15 | 0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 9.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.24 | 27.52 |
| state index | 0.73 | 0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.24 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 192.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.35 | 1.48 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.73 | 1.47 |