← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 28, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Barrott
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford win | 54% | 59% | 1.75 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 24% | 23% | 3.90 | fair |
| Burnley win | 22% | 18% | 4.33 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burnley +0.75 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Brentford +0.75 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 59% | 1.80 | value: +7% |
| Under | 47% | 41% | 2.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| -5' | 🟨 | Yehor Yarmoliuk · Brentford |
| 9' | ⚽ | Mikkel Damsgaard · Brentford |
| 25' | ⚽ | Igor Thiago · Brentford |
| 34' | ⚽ | Kevin Schade · Brentford |
| 45' | ⚽ (og) | Michael Kayode · Burnley |
| 47' | ⚽ | Jaidon Anthony · Burnley |
| 60' | ⚽ | Zian Flemming · Burnley |
| 77' | 🟨 | Igor Thiago · Brentford |
| 86' | 🟨 | Bashir Humphreys · Burnley |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lyle Foster · Burnley |
| 90' | ⚽ |
| 1 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 12 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burnley | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Turf Moor |
| Mikkel Damsgaard · Brentford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 211.00 | 242.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.79 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1758.73 | 1901.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.10 | -7.61 |
| eye test v1 | -0.64 | -0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.66 | -0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 63.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 1.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.79 |
| league points | 19.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.20 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 0.70 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.54 | -0.12 |
| solidity v1 | -0.68 | -0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 27.63 | 26.61 |
| state index | 0.04 | 0.72 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.30 | -0.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 287.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.61 | 1.42 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.84 | 1.42 |