← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 28, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: J. Gillett
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 52% | 45% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 34% | 3.60 | value: +23% |
| Sunderland win | 22% | 21% | 4.33 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth −0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Sunderland −0.5 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 49% | 1.90 | fair |
| Under | 49% | 51% | 1.95 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | ⚽ | Eliezer Mayenda · Sunderland |
| 33' | 🟨 | Noah Sadiki · Sunderland |
| 58' | 🟨 | Tyler Adams · Bournemouth |
| 63' | ⚽ | Evanilson · Bournemouth |
| 74' | 🟨 | Robin Roefs · Sunderland |
| 86' | 🟨 | Alex Tóth · Bournemouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alex Scott · Bournemouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ryan Christie · Bournemouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bournemouth | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Vitality Stadium |
| coach days | 973.00 | 607.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.09 | 1.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1709.90 | 1580.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 36.35 | -21.43 |
| eye test v1 | 0.53 | -0.67 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.00 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.62 |
| league points | 38.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.20 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 6.79 | 5.94 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.41 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 9.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.19 | -0.06 |
| solidity v1 | -0.42 | -0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 24.41 | 24.60 |
| state index | 0.79 | -0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.13 | 0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| travel km | — | 465.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.79 | 1.50 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.55 | 0.91 |