← Premier League 2025-26 · Fri, Feb 27, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Pawson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa win | 54% | 57% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 22% | 3.70 | fair |
| Wolves win | 20% | 22% | 4.75 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wolves +0.75 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Aston Villa +0.75 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 57% | 1.91 | value: +8% |
| Under | 50% | 43% | 1.91 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Yerson Mosquera · Wolves |
| 51' | 🟨 | Adam Armstrong · Wolves |
| 54' | 🟨 | Emiliano Buendía · Aston Villa |
| 58' | 🟨 | Jean-Ricner Bellegarde · Wolves |
| 61' | ⚽ | João Gomes · Wolves |
| 75' | 🟨 | Leon Bailey · Aston Villa |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matty Cash · Aston Villa |
| 90' | ⚽ | Rodrigo Gomes · Wolves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 14 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 0 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolves | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| venue | Molineux Stadium |
| coach days |
| 210.00 |
| 1214.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.91 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1509.24 | 1833.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.72 | -14.56 |
| eye test v1 | -0.14 | 0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | -0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.60 | 52.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | — |
| league points | 10.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.60 | 60.20 |
| rest days | 5.25 | 6.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.36 | 1.89 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.66 | 0.87 |
| solidity v1 | -1.25 | -0.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 25.71 | 28.30 |
| state index | -0.73 | 0.78 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.51 | 0.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 18.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.19 | 1.33 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.96 | 1.32 |