← Premier League 2025-26 · Sun, Feb 22, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Kirk
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 54% | 68% | 1.75 | value: +20% |
| Draw | 25% | 16% | 3.80 | fair |
| Wolves win | 22% | 16% | 4.33 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace −0.5 | 54% | 1.75 |
| Wolves −0.5 | 46% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 52% | 1.91 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 48% | 1.91 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | 🟨 | Will Hughes · Crystal Palace |
| 31' | 🟨 | Jaydee Canvot · Crystal Palace |
| 41' | 🟨 | Adam Wharton · Crystal Palace |
| 58' | 🟨 | Ladislav Krejcí · Wolves |
| 61' | 🟨 | Ladislav Krejcí · Wolves |
| 61' | 🟥 | Ladislav Krejcí · Wolves |
| 67' | 🟨 | Chadi Riad · Crystal Palace |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ismaïla Sarr · Crystal Palace |
| 90' | 🟨 | André · Wolves |
| 90' | ⚽ | Evann Guessand · Crystal Palace |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 19 | Fouls | 13 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.77 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| coach days | 752.00 | 205.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.81 | 1.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1668.82 | 1513.73 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.49 | -3.78 |
| eye test v1 | 0.21 | -0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 52.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.69 |
| league points | 32.00 | 10.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.60 | 40.00 |
| rest days | 2.84 | 3.75 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 0.37 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.52 | -0.77 |
| solidity v1 | 0.64 | -1.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 26.27 | 25.75 |
| state index | -0.08 | -0.73 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.54 | -0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 192.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.04 | 1.96 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.49 | 0.75 |