← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 21, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Bramall
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 61% | 60% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 21% | 4.75 | fair |
| Newcastle win | 19% | 19% | 5.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle −1 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Man City −1 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 68% | 1.44 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 32% | 2.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Dan Burn · Newcastle |
| 14' | ⚽ | Nico O'Reilly · Man City |
| 22' | ⚽ | Lewis Hall · Newcastle |
| 27' | ⚽ | Nico O'Reilly · Man City |
| 41' | 🟨 | Rúben Dias · Man City |
| 48' | 🟨 | Joe Willock · Newcastle |
| 50' | 🟨 | Bernardo Silva · Man City |
| 62' | 🟨 | Harvey Barnes · Newcastle |
| 65' | 🟨 | Kieran Trippier · Newcastle |
| 89' | 🟨 | Joelinton · Newcastle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man City | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Etihad Stadium |
| coach days | 3522.00 | 1573.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.33 | 3.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1898.14 | 1779.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.15 | 5.46 |
| eye test v1 | 0.52 | 1.03 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.40 | 62.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.64 |
| league points | 53.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.80 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.60 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 10.02 | 3.09 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 2.04 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.26 | 0.78 |
| solidity v1 | 0.91 | -0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 26.23 | 27.44 |
| state index | 1.45 | 0.71 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.90 | -0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| travel km | — | 170.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.91 | 1.78 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.77 | 2.37 |