← Premier League 2025-26 · Wed, Feb 18, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Tierney
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 78% | 77% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 14% | 6.50 | fair |
| Wolves win | 8% | 8% | 12.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wolves +1.75 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Arsenal +1.75 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 58% | 1.73 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 42% | 2.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Bukayo Saka · Arsenal |
| 45' | 🟨 | Santiago Bueno · Wolves |
| 56' | ⚽ | Piero Hincapié · Arsenal |
| 61' | ⚽ | Hugo Bueno · Wolves |
| 71' | 🟨 | Jean-Ricner Bellegarde · Wolves |
| 90' | 🟨 | Gabriel Jesus · Arsenal |
| 90' | ⚽ | — · Wolves |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 5 | Shots | 10 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 3 |
| 6 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolves | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | Molineux Stadium |
| coach days | 201.00 | 232.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 5.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 3.29 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1505.47 | 1974.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.83 | -10.91 |
| eye test v1 | -0.65 | 0.89 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.13 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.80 | 57.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | — |
| league points | 9.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.20 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 7.02 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 0.35 | 2.19 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | 6.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.80 | 1.02 |
| solidity v1 | -0.76 | 1.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 25.64 | 26.61 |
| state index | -0.67 | 1.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.67 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 179.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.83 | 0.73 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.75 | 1.91 |