← Premier League 2025-26 · Wed, Feb 11, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: P. Tierney
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 70% | 81% | 1.36 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 17% | 12% | 5.50 | fair |
| Fulham win | 13% | 7% | 7.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fulham −1.5 | 53% | 1.78 |
| Man City −1.5 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 58% | 1.44 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 42% | 2.75 | value: +17% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Antoine Semenyo · Man City |
| 30' | 🟨 | Joachim Andersen · Fulham |
| 30' | ⚽ | Nico O'Reilly · Man City |
| 39' | ⚽ | Erling Haaland · Man City |
| 41' | 🟨 | Bernardo Silva · Man City |
| 66' | 🟨 | Phil Foden · Man City |
| 83' | 🟨 | Nico González · Man City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man City | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Etihad Stadium |
| coach days | 3512.00 | 1686.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1892.48 | 1666.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.60 | -4.66 |
| eye test v1 | 0.13 | -0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 65.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.70 |
| league points | 50.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.60 | 85.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.00 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 3.13 | 4.19 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | -1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.23 | 0.66 |
| solidity v1 | 0.32 | -0.75 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.22 | 28.77 |
| state index | 1.09 | 0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.22 | 0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 260.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.08 | 1.82 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.58 | 1.31 |