← Premier League 2025-26 · Wed, Feb 11, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Hallam
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 65% | 62% | 1.45 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 25% | 4.50 | value: +11% |
| Burnley win | 14% | 13% | 7.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burnley −1.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Crystal Palace −1.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 48% | 1.73 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 52% | 2.10 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Jørgen Strand Larsen · Crystal Palace |
| 33' | ⚽ | Jørgen Strand Larsen · Crystal Palace |
| 35' | 🟨 | Chris Richards · Crystal Palace |
| 36' | 🟨 | Jefferson Lerma · Crystal Palace |
| 40' | ⚽ | Hannibal Mejbri · Burnley |
| 44' | ⚽ | Jaidon Anthony · Burnley |
| 45' | ⚽ (og) | Jefferson Lerma · Burnley |
| 74' | 🟨 | Hannibal Mejbri · Burnley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 21 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crystal Palace | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.20 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.81 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | Selhurst Park |
| coach days | 741.00 | 194.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.15 | 2.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1686.28 | 1559.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.84 | -20.71 |
| eye test v1 | -0.04 | -1.20 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.41 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.80 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.63 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.70 |
| league points | 32.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 16.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.60 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 42.00 |
| rest days | 3.23 | 4.19 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.28 | 0.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -10.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.17 | -0.73 |
| solidity v1 | 0.18 | -1.96 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 8.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 27.08 | 27.05 |
| state index | 0.17 | -1.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.00 | -0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 302.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.38 | 2.00 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.39 | 0.70 |