← Premier League 2025-26 · Sun, Feb 8, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: C. Pawson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 45% | 50% | 2.10 | value: +5% |
| Man City win | 31% | 25% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 26% | 3.90 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Liverpool −0.25 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Man City −0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 53% | 1.44 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 47% | 2.75 | value: +28% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 42' | 🟨 | Omar Marmoush · Man City |
| 47' | 🟨 | Virgil van Dijk · Liverpool |
| 69' | 🟨 | Marc Guéhi · Man City |
| 74' | ⚽ | Dominik Szoboszlai · Liverpool |
| 84' | ⚽ | Bernardo Silva · Man City |
| 90' | 🟨 | Alisson · Liverpool |
| 90' | 🟥 | Dominik Szoboszlai · Liverpool |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bernardo Silva · Man City |
| 90' | 🟨 | Erling Haaland · Man City |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Erling Haaland · Man City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 17 |
| 4 | On target | 7 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Liverpool | Man City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.79 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Anfield |
| coach days | 617.00 | 3509.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 9.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.80 | 1.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1867.88 | 1881.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.48 | -35.47 |
| eye test v1 | 1.93 | 0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.70 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.80 | 59.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.81 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.70 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.82 |
| league points | 39.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.60 | 89.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.40 | 60.40 |
| rest days | 7.85 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.41 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 1.96 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.84 | 1.28 |
| solidity v1 | 1.14 | 0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.27 | 25.76 |
| state index | 1.40 | 0.57 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.23 | 1.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 50.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.84 | 1.00 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.75 | 1.50 |