← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 7, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Madley
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle win | 50% | 52% | 1.91 | fair |
| Brentford win | 25% | 27% | 3.75 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 20% | 3.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brentford −0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Newcastle −0.5 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 50% | 1.67 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 50% | 2.20 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | ⚽ | Sven Botman · Newcastle |
| 37' | ⚽ | Vitaly Janelt · Brentford |
| 44' | 🟨 | Jacob Murphy · Newcastle |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Igor Thiago · Brentford |
| 69' | 🟨 | Igor Thiago · Brentford |
| 79' | ⚽ (pen) | Bruno Guimarães · Newcastle |
| 85' | ⚽ | Dango Ouattara · Brentford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lewis Hall · Newcastle |
| 90' | 🟨 | Vitaly Janelt · Brentford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 11 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Newcastle | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.80 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | St. James' Park |
| coach days | 1559.00 | 221.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.01 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1769.14 | 1711.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.96 | 12.79 |
| eye test v1 | -0.03 | 0.24 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.21 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.80 | 62.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 1.65 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.81 |
| league points | 33.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 81.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.00 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.15 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.57 | 0.63 |
| solidity v1 | -0.77 | 0.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 27.49 | 26.44 |
| state index | 0.42 | 0.67 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.54 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 397.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.63 | 1.48 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.92 |