← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 7, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Attwell
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham win | 45% | 48% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
| Everton win | 27% | 24% | 3.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fulham −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Everton −0.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 43% | 1.91 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 57% | 1.91 | value: +10% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Idrissa Gana Gueye · Everton |
| 18' | ⚽ (og) | Vitaliy Mykolenko · Fulham |
| 56' | 🟨 | James Garner · Everton |
| 65' | 🟨 | Vitaliy Mykolenko · Everton |
| 66' | 🟨 | Jorge Cuenca · Fulham |
| 75' | ⚽ | Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall · Everton |
| 83' | ⚽ (og) | Bernd Leno · Everton |
| 88' | 🟨 | Jake O'Brien · Everton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jordan Pickford · Everton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fulham | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| venue | Craven Cottage |
| coach days | 1682.00 | 221.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | -2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.91 | 1.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1678.14 | 1685.06 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.31 | -6.77 |
| eye test v1 | -0.35 | -0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.80 | 62.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.85 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.70 |
| league points | 34.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.20 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 6.04 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 1.42 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.35 | -0.36 |
| solidity v1 | -0.58 | -0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 29.22 | 27.38 |
| state index | 0.44 | 0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.59 | 0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 286.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.71 | 1.52 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.06 | 0.84 |