← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, Feb 7, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: D. England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham win | 44% | 49% | 2.15 | value: +5% |
| Burnley win | 30% | 23% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 28% | 3.70 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| West Ham +0.25 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Burnley +0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 59% | 1.73 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 41% | 2.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Crysencio Summerville · West Ham |
| 24' | 🟨 | Florentino Luís · Burnley |
| 26' | ⚽ | Valentín Castellanos · West Ham |
| 41' | 🟨 | El Hadji Malick Diouf · West Ham |
| 76' | 🟨 | Bashir Humphreys · Burnley |
| 84' | 🟨 | Josh Laurent · Burnley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 18 | Shots | 6 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burnley | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Turf Moor |
| coach days | 190.00 | 221.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.21 | 2.01 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1753.69 | 1769.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.89 | -4.64 |
| eye test v1 | -1.44 | -0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | 0.57 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.30 | 63.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.65 |
| league points | 15.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 76.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.20 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 4.79 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 0.63 | 0.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -15.20 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.00 | -0.26 |
| solidity v1 | -2.09 | -0.84 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.25 | 26.77 |
| state index | -0.70 | 0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.00 | -0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 293.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.09 | 1.66 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.49 | 1.31 |