← Premier League 2025-26 · Mon, Feb 2, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Tierney
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland win | 50% | 37% | 1.91 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 46% | 3.30 | value: +53% ⚠ |
| Burnley win | 22% | 17% | 4.33 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Burnley −0.5 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Sunderland −0.5 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 62% | 50% | 1.53 | fair |
| Over | 38% | 50% | 2.50 | value: +26% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ (og) | Axel Tuanzebe · Sunderland |
| 32' | ⚽ | Habib Diarra · Sunderland |
| 45' | 🟨 | Lesley Ugochukwu · Burnley |
| 67' | 🟨 | Trai Hume · Sunderland |
| 67' | 🟨 | Martin Dúbravka · Burnley |
| 70' | 🟨 | Jaidon Anthony · Burnley |
| 72' | ⚽ | Chemsdine Talbi · Sunderland |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kyle Walker · Burnley |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 5 |
| 5 | On target | 0 |
| 1 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sunderland | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadium of Light |
| coach days |
| 581.00 |
| 185.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 3.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.28 |
| elo | 1588.01 | 1591.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.34 | -7.69 |
| eye test v1 | -0.34 | -0.98 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | -0.07 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.80 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.70 |
| league points | 33.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 14.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 37.60 |
| rest days | 9.31 | 9.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 0.65 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -14.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.19 | -1.06 |
| solidity v1 | -0.51 | -2.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 9.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 24.76 | 27.17 |
| state index | 0.09 | -0.86 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.20 | -0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 136.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.76 | 2.31 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.08 | 0.69 |