← Premier League 2025-26 · Sun, Feb 1, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Jones
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 57% | 56% | 1.67 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 22% | 4.10 | fair |
| Tottenham win | 20% | 22% | 4.75 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Man City +0.75 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Tottenham +0.75 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 53% | 1.62 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 47% | 2.30 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Yves Bissouma · Tottenham |
| 11' | ⚽ | Rayan Cherki · Man City |
| 21' | 🟨 | Abdukodir Khusanov · Man City |
| 38' | 🟨 | Xavi Simons · Tottenham |
| 44' | ⚽ | Antoine Semenyo · Man City |
| 45' | 🟨 | Rodri · Man City |
| 48' | 🟨 | Dominic Solanke · Tottenham |
| 53' | ⚽ | Dominic Solanke · Tottenham |
| 70' | ⚽ | Dominic Solanke · Tottenham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nico González · Man City |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 15 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tottenham | Man City |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| coach days | 92.00 | 3502.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.96 | 1.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1720.61 | 1884.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.23 | -38.99 |
| eye test v1 | 0.97 | -0.04 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.42 | -0.52 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.30 | 60.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.85 |
| league points | 28.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.40 | 88.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.20 | 59.80 |
| rest days | 3.85 | 3.85 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 1.22 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.97 | 1.08 |
| solidity v1 | 0.51 | 0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.34 | 25.84 |
| state index | 0.63 | 0.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.34 | 1.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.16 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 253.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.33 | 1.16 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.64 | 1.29 |