← Premier League 2025-26 · Sun, Feb 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Harrington
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nott'm Forest win | 45% | 55% | 2.10 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 29% | 21% | 3.30 | fair |
| Crystal Palace win | 26% | 24% | 3.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nott'm Forest −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Crystal Palace −0.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 57% | 1.67 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 43% | 2.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Morgan Gibbs-White · Nott'm Forest |
| 31' | 🟨 | Chris Richards · Crystal Palace |
| 32' | 🟨 | Chadi Riad · Crystal Palace |
| 45' | 🟥 | Neco Williams · Nott'm Forest |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Ismaïla Sarr · Crystal Palace |
| 54' | 🟨 | Yéremy Pino · Crystal Palace |
| 75' | 🟨 | Nikola Milenković · Nott'm Forest |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 14 |
| 1 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 4 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nott'm Forest | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.84 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.20 |
| venue | City Ground |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 153.00 | 731.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.06 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1691.56 | 1671.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 44.45 | -33.85 |
| eye test v1 | -0.05 | -0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.34 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.40 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | — |
| league points | 25.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 41.60 |
| rest days | 2.75 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 1.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.00 | -0.54 |
| solidity v1 | 1.10 | -1.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 26.22 | 26.52 |
| state index | 0.80 | -0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.14 | -0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 185.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.21 | 1.90 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.43 | 1.30 |