← Premier League 2025-26 · Sun, Feb 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Brooks
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man United win | 62% | 65% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 21% | 4.75 | fair |
| Fulham win | 18% | 14% | 5.25 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Man United −1 | 52% | 1.85 |
| Fulham −1 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 59% | 1.50 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 41% | 2.63 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | ⚽ | Casemiro · Man United |
| 42' | 🟨 | Joachim Andersen · Fulham |
| 56' | ⚽ | Matheus Cunha · Man United |
| 64' | 🟨 | Casemiro · Man United |
| 83' | 🟨 | Harry Maguire · Man United |
| 85' | ⚽ (pen) | Raúl Jiménez · Fulham |
| 90' | ⚽ | Kevin · Fulham |
| 90' | ⚽ | Benjamin Šeško · Man United |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 6 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man United | Fulham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 3.00 |
| venue | Old Trafford |
| coach days | 184.00 | 1676.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 1.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1930.47 | 1880.48 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.30 | 16.35 |
| eye test v1 | 0.71 | -0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.80 | 62.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.75 |
| league points | 38.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 7.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.65 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.00 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.49 | 0.29 |
| solidity v1 | 1.13 | -0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 27.23 | 29.07 |
| state index | 1.38 | 1.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.29 | 0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 261.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.79 | 1.74 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.59 | 1.03 |