← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 31, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Hooper
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 58% | 59% | 1.62 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 21% | 4.33 | fair |
| Newcastle win | 20% | 20% | 4.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle −1 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Liverpool −1 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 67% | 1.44 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 33% | 2.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Anthony Gordon · Newcastle |
| 36' | ⚽ | Anthony Gordon · Newcastle |
| 41' | ⚽ | Hugo Ekitiké · Liverpool |
| 43' | ⚽ | Hugo Ekitiké · Liverpool |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jacob Ramsey · Newcastle |
| 59' | 🟨 | Alexis Mac Allister · Liverpool |
| 67' | ⚽ | Florian Wirtz · Liverpool |
| 86' | 🟨 | Dan Burn · Newcastle |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ibrahima Konaté · Liverpool |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 8 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 11 |
| 11 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Liverpool | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Anfield |
| coach days | 609.00 | 1552.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.16 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1856.94 | 1780.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.51 | 12.74 |
| eye test v1 | 1.21 | 0.51 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.50 | -0.38 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.00 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.77 |
| league points | 36.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 87.60 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.00 | 56.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.63 | 0.95 |
| solidity v1 | 1.05 | -0.04 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 28.34 | 25.92 |
| state index | 1.31 | 0.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.04 | 0.65 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 192.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.88 | 1.31 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.36 | 1.74 |