← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 31, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Oliver
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 39% | 40% | 2.45 | fair |
| Wolves win | 34% | 33% | 2.80 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.50 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wolves +0.25 | 55% | 1.70 |
| Bournemouth +0.25 | 45% | 2.10 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 55% | 1.80 | fair |
| Under | 47% | 45% | 2.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | ⚽ | Eli Junior Kroupi · Bournemouth |
| 45' | 🟨 | André · Wolves |
| 58' | 🟨 | Álex Jiménez · Bournemouth |
| 60' | 🟨 | Amine Adli · Bournemouth |
| 61' | 🟨 | Yerson Mosquera · Wolves |
| 75' | 🟨 | João Gomes · Wolves |
| 88' | 🟨 | James Hill · Bournemouth |
| 90' | ⚽ | Alex Scott · Bournemouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 9 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wolves | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Molineux Stadium |
| coach days | 183.00 | 945.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -4.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 9.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.20 | 3.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1514.96 | 1687.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 34.83 | 28.23 |
| eye test v1 | -0.32 | 0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.13 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.58 |
| league points | 8.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 20.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 74.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.20 | 36.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 0.35 | 1.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.52 | -0.48 |
| solidity v1 | 1.23 | -0.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 25.68 | 25.84 |
| state index | 0.10 | 0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.44 | -1.74 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| travel km | — | 207.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.76 | 1.33 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.92 | 1.90 |