← Premier League 2025-26 · Sun, Jan 25, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: C. Pawson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 62% | 70% | 1.53 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 21% | 18% | 4.50 | fair |
| Man United win | 17% | 13% | 5.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal −1 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Man United −1 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 57% | 1.67 | fair |
| Under | 43% | 43% | 2.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | ⚽ (og) | Lisandro Martínez · Arsenal |
| 37' | ⚽ | Bryan Mbeumo · Man United |
| 50' | ⚽ | Patrick Dorgu · Man United |
| 64' | 🟨 | Declan Rice · Arsenal |
| 84' | ⚽ | Mikel Merino · Arsenal |
| 87' | ⚽ | Matheus Cunha · Man United |
| 90' | 🟨 | Eberechi Eze · Arsenal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 10 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arsenal | Man United |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| venue | Emirates Stadium |
| coach days | 208.00 | 177.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 2.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.59 |
| elo | 2153.30 | 1913.49 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.63 | 21.69 |
| eye test v1 | 0.62 | 0.86 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.37 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 56.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.63 |
| league points | 50.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 48.20 |
| rest days | 4.85 | 8.17 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 2.27 | 1.59 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.76 | 0.44 |
| solidity v1 | 0.96 | 1.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 26.37 | 27.08 |
| state index | 2.01 | 1.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.01 | -0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| travel km | — | 258.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.22 | 0.79 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.70 |