← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 24, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Salisbury
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool win | 54% | 48% | 1.75 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.00 | fair |
| Bournemouth win | 22% | 27% | 4.20 | value: +13% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth +0.75 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Liverpool +0.75 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 58% | 1.57 | fair |
| Under | 40% | 42% | 2.38 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Evanilson · Bournemouth |
| 33' | ⚽ | Álex Jiménez · Bournemouth |
| 45' | 🟨 | Eli Junior Kroupi · Bournemouth |
| 45' | ⚽ | Virgil van Dijk · Liverpool |
| 80' | ⚽ | Dominik Szoboszlai · Liverpool |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ryan Gravenberch · Liverpool |
| 90' | ⚽ | Amine Adli · Bournemouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 11 |
| 7 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bournemouth | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |
| venue | Vitality Stadium |
| coach days | 938.00 | 602.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.85 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.66 |
| elo | 1673.55 | 1865.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.75 | 5.99 |
| eye test v1 | 0.53 | 0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.50 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.20 | 65.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.79 |
| league points | 27.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.00 | 87.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.40 | 58.60 |
| rest days | 4.90 | 2.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 1.64 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 9.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.80 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.27 | 1.19 |
| solidity v1 | -0.99 | 1.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.22 | 27.31 |
| state index | 0.13 | 1.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.59 | 0.74 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 309.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.87 | 0.65 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.97 | 1.68 |