← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 24, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Bramall
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham win | 43% | 44% | 2.20 | fair |
| Sunderland win | 29% | 30% | 3.25 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.30 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sunderland −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| West Ham −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 51% | 1.80 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 49% | 2.05 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Crysencio Summerville · West Ham |
| 28' | ⚽ (pen) | Jarrod Bowen · West Ham |
| 30' | 🟨 | Daniel Ballard · Sunderland |
| 35' | 🟨 | Reinildo Mandava · Sunderland |
| 43' | ⚽ | Mateus Fernandes · West Ham |
| 66' | ⚽ | Brian Brobbey · Sunderland |
| 71' | 🟨 | Valentín Castellanos · West Ham |
| 80' | 🟨 | Noah Sadiki · Sunderland |
| 88' | 🟨 | Habib Diarra · Sunderland |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mateus Fernandes · West Ham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Ham | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.82 | 0.80 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | London Stadium |
| coach days | 207.00 | 572.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.99 | 1.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1569.29 | 1601.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.04 | 13.96 |
| eye test v1 | -0.56 | -0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.00 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.90 | 63.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.72 |
| league points | 17.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 19.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 6.90 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.77 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.02 | -0.29 |
| solidity v1 | -1.17 | -0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.57 | 26.27 |
| state index | -0.41 | 0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.23 | 0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 387.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.90 | 1.89 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.37 | 1.09 |