← Premier League 2025-26 · Mon, Jan 19, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Tierney
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton win | 49% | 47% | 1.95 | fair |
| Bournemouth win | 26% | 26% | 3.70 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | 3.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth −0.5 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Brighton −0.5 | 49% | 1.95 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 64% | 1.50 | fair |
| Under | 36% | 36% | 2.63 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | ⚽ (pen) | Marcus Tavernier · Bournemouth |
| 58' | 🟨 | Danny Welbeck · Brighton |
| 60' | 🟨 | Marcos Senesi · Bournemouth |
| 77' | 🟨 | Jan Paul van Hecke · Brighton |
| 83' | 🟨 | Adam Smith · Bournemouth |
| 85' | 🟨 | Đorđe Petrović · Bournemouth |
| 90' | ⚽ | Charalampos Kostoulas · Brighton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 11 | Corners | 6 |
| 7 | Fouls | 6 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brighton | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Amex Stadium |
| coach days | 597.00 | 933.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.66 | 4.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.20 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1725.51 | 1670.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.99 | -6.32 |
| eye test v1 | 0.01 | 0.52 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | -0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | 53.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.55 |
| league points | 29.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 76.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 12.02 | 12.02 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.58 | 0.18 |
| solidity v1 | -0.58 | -0.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 26.34 | 25.18 |
| state index | 0.55 | 0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.62 | -1.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.35 |
| travel km | — | 124.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.83 | 1.75 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.44 | 1.99 |