← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Gillett
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham win | 51% | 49% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 19% | 3.75 | fair |
| West Ham win | 24% | 32% | 3.90 | value: +26% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Tottenham −0.5 | 52% | 1.85 |
| West Ham −0.5 | 48% | 2.00 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 54% | 1.73 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 46% | 2.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | Valentín Castellanos · West Ham |
| 15' | ⚽ | Crysencio Summerville · West Ham |
| 19' | 🟨 | Ben Davies · Tottenham |
| 39' | 🟨 | Archie Gray · Tottenham |
| 45' | 🟨 | Cristian Romero · Tottenham |
| 52' | 🟨 | Jarrod Bowen · West Ham |
| 57' | 🟨 | Micky van de Ven · Tottenham |
| 64' | ⚽ | Cristian Romero · Tottenham |
| 72' | 🟨 | Tomáš Souček · West Ham |
| 78' | 🟨 | Djed Spence · Tottenham |
| 90' | ⚽ |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 17 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 11 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 17 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Tottenham | West Ham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.20 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Tottenham Hotspur Stadium |
| Callum Wilson · West Ham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 77.00 | 200.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.92 | 2.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1700.68 | 1553.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.73 | -39.68 |
| eye test v1 | -0.21 | -0.85 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.30 | 61.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.69 |
| league points | 27.00 | 14.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 9.81 | 10.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.55 | -0.22 |
| solidity v1 | 0.91 | -1.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 2.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.40 |
| squad age | 25.69 | 26.80 |
| state index | 0.23 | -1.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.55 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| travel km | — | 9.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.95 | 1.98 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.05 | 1.03 |