← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Jones
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland win | 40% | 41% | 2.40 | fair |
| Crystal Palace win | 31% | 29% | 3.10 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace −0.25 | 53% | 1.80 |
| Sunderland −0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 57% | 61% | 1.67 | fair |
| Over | 43% | 39% | 2.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Chris Richards · Crystal Palace |
| 30' | ⚽ | Yéremy Pino · Crystal Palace |
| 33' | ⚽ | Enzo Le Fée · Sunderland |
| 36' | 🟨 | Adam Wharton · Crystal Palace |
| 48' | 🟨 | Trai Hume · Sunderland |
| 63' | 🟨 | Nordi Mukiele · Sunderland |
| 63' | 🟨 | Tyrick Mitchell · Crystal Palace |
| 66' | 🟨 | Omar Alderete · Sunderland |
| 71' | ⚽ | Brian Brobbey · Sunderland |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 6 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 15 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sunderland | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.78 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadium of Light |
| coach days | 565.00 | 716.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1590.56 | 1694.57 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.87 | -41.76 |
| eye test v1 | -0.34 | -0.60 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | -0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.50 | — |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.69 |
| league points | 30.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.60 | 46.20 |
| rest days | 9.81 | 9.81 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 11.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.50 | -0.20 |
| solidity v1 | -0.75 | -0.87 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 25.62 | 25.17 |
| state index | -0.10 | -0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.32 | -0.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 400.50 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.99 | 1.83 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.02 | 1.43 |