β Premier League 2025-26 Β· Sat, Jan 17, 03:00 PM UTC Β· ref: C. Kavanagh
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Leeds win | 40% | 44% | 2.35 | fair |
| Fulham win | 32% | 29% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.40 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Fulham β0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Leeds β0.25 | 47% | 2.03 |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 50% | 52% | 1.93 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 48% | 1.93 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 6 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand