← Premier League 2025-26 · Wed, Jan 7, 08:15 PM UTC · ref: M. Salisbury
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle win | 59% | 59% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 26% | 4.04 | value: +4% |
| Leeds win | 17% | 15% | 6.00 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle −0.75 | 54% | 1.84 |
| Leeds −0.75 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 64% | 1.85 | value: +18% |
| Under | 47% | 36% | 2.07 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Malick Thiaw · Newcastle |
| 22' | 🟨 | Dominic Calvert-Lewin · Leeds |
| 32' | ⚽ | Brenden Aaronson · Leeds |
| 36' | ⚽ | Harvey Barnes · Newcastle |
| 45' | 🟨 | Joelinton · Newcastle |
| 45' | 🟨 | Anthony Gordon · Newcastle |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Dominic Calvert-Lewin · Leeds |
| 54' | ⚽ | Joelinton · Newcastle |
| 79' | ⚽ | Brenden Aaronson · Leeds |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ethan Ampadu · Leeds |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 18 | Shots | 14 |
| 8 | On target | 6 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Newcastle | Leeds |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| venue | St. James' Park |
| Bruno Guimarães · Newcastle |
| 90' | ⚽ | Harvey Barnes · Newcastle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1528.00 | 921.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 2.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1767.34 | 1670.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.13 | 27.32 |
| eye test v1 | 0.49 | 0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.80 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.62 |
| league points | 29.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.00 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.60 | 46.00 |
| rest days | 3.22 | 3.32 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.76 | -0.14 |
| solidity v1 | 1.00 | 0.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 27.43 | 26.82 |
| state index | 0.77 | 0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.62 | -0.61 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 133.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.92 | 1.33 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.62 | 1.59 |