← Premier League 2025-26 · Wed, Jan 7, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Bramall
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 63% | 71% | 1.53 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 21% | 21% | 4.63 | fair |
| Brighton win | 16% | 8% | 6.10 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Man City −1 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Brighton −1 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 65% | 66% | 1.47 | fair |
| Under | 35% | 34% | 2.77 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Lewis Dunk · Brighton |
| 41' | 🟨 | Pascal Groß · Brighton |
| 41' | ⚽ (pen) | Erling Haaland · Man City |
| 53' | 🟨 | Jan Paul van Hecke · Brighton |
| 60' | 🟨 | Gianluigi Donnarumma · Man City |
| 60' | 🟨 | Maxim De Cuyper · Brighton |
| 60' | ⚽ | Kaoru Mitoma · Brighton |
| 69' | 🟨 | Kaoru Mitoma · Brighton |
| 89' | 🟨 | Tom Watson · Brighton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 6 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man City | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| venue | Etihad Stadium |
| coach days | 3477.00 | 585.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.50 | 2.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1923.02 | 1719.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.45 | -10.54 |
| eye test v1 | 0.65 | 0.03 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.73 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.60 | 54.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.74 |
| league points | 42.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.20 | 86.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.60 | 55.20 |
| rest days | 3.08 | 4.19 |
| scorer concentration | 0.45 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 2.10 | 1.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.43 | 0.96 |
| solidity v1 | 0.74 | -0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 26.17 | 26.15 |
| state index | 1.35 | 0.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.41 | 0.63 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.25 |
| travel km | — | 325.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.23 | 1.74 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.65 |