← Premier League 2025-26 · Wed, Jan 7, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: P. Bankes
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 47% | 45% | 2.09 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.58 | fair |
| Fulham win | 26% | 32% | 3.70 | value: +19% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fulham +0.5 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Chelsea +0.5 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 57% | 1.93 | value: +9% |
| Under | 50% | 43% | 1.98 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | 🟥 | Marc Cucurella · Chelsea |
| 24' | 🟨 | Enzo Fernández · Chelsea |
| 25' | 🟨 | Cole Palmer · Chelsea |
| 25' | 🟨 | Tosin Adarabioyo · Chelsea |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jorge Cuenca · Fulham |
| 55' | ⚽ | Raúl Jiménez · Fulham |
| 72' | ⚽ | Liam Delap · Chelsea |
| 78' | 🟨 | Timothy Castagne · Fulham |
| 81' | ⚽ | Harry Wilson · Fulham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Raúl Jiménez · Fulham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 14 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 11 |
| 11 | Fouls | 6 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fulham | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| venue | Craven Cottage |
| coach days | 1651.00 | 159.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 3.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1671.28 | 1814.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 36.40 | -5.33 |
| eye test v1 | -0.14 | 0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.03 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.10 | 48.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.72 |
| league points | 28.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 3.18 | 3.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 1.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.55 | 1.17 |
| solidity v1 | 0.31 | -0.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 29.69 | 23.81 |
| state index | 0.57 | 0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.48 | 0.74 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 2.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.47 | 1.74 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.57 | 1.94 |