← Premier League 2025-26 · Wed, Jan 7, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: T. Kirk
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton win | 51% | 51% | 1.89 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.52 | fair |
| Wolves win | 21% | 24% | 4.60 | value: +12% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Everton −0.5 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Wolves −0.5 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 57% | 1.85 | value: +5% |
| Over | 47% | 43% | 2.06 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Michael Keane · Everton |
| 43' | 🟨 | José Sá · Wolves |
| 57' | 🟨 | Yerson Mosquera · Wolves |
| 69' | ⚽ | Mateus Mané · Wolves |
| 77' | 🟨 | Tim Iroegbunam · Everton |
| 77' | 🟨 | Hwang Hee-chan · Wolves |
| 83' | 🟥 | Michael Keane · Everton |
| 87' | 🟨 | Jack Grealish · Everton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jack Grealish · Everton |
| 90' | 🟥 | Jack Grealish · Everton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Everton | Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Hill Dickinson Stadium |
| coach days | 190.00 | 159.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.44 | 1.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1674.55 | 1506.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.18 | 14.15 |
| eye test v1 | -0.51 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.59 | 0.98 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.40 | 63.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.63 |
| league points | 28.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.40 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.60 | 36.80 |
| rest days | 3.19 | 4.19 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 0.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 8.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.83 | -0.76 |
| solidity v1 | -0.56 | 0.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.11 | 25.81 |
| state index | 0.00 | -0.26 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.81 | -0.57 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 109.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.96 | 1.01 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.84 | 1.15 |