← Premier League 2025-26 · Wed, Jan 7, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: D. England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth win | 43% | 39% | 2.25 | fair |
| Tottenham win | 30% | 20% | 3.23 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 41% | 3.64 | value: +50% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Tottenham −0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
| Bournemouth −0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 58% | 1.77 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 42% | 2.13 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Mathys Tel · Tottenham |
| 22' | ⚽ | Evanilson · Bournemouth |
| 36' | ⚽ | Eli Junior Kroupi · Bournemouth |
| 43' | 🟨 | Antoine Semenyo · Bournemouth |
| 51' | 🟨 | Lewis Cook · Bournemouth |
| 60' | 🟨 | Pedro Porro · Tottenham |
| 61' | 🟨 | Randal Kolo Muani · Tottenham |
| 75' | 🟨 | Micky van de Ven · Tottenham |
| 77' | 🟨 | Álex Jiménez · Bournemouth |
| 78' | ⚽ | João Palhinha · Tottenham |
| 90' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 19 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bournemouth | Tottenham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.80 |
| venue | Vitality Stadium |
| ⚽ |
| Antoine Semenyo · Bournemouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 921.00 | 67.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 2.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.07 | 2.83 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1660.65 | 1710.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.76 | -16.50 |
| eye test v1 | 0.98 | -0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.24 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.30 | 60.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | — |
| league points | 23.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 4.08 | 3.19 |
| scorer concentration | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.40 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.18 | -0.68 |
| solidity v1 | -1.49 | 0.51 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 4.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 25.44 | 26.14 |
| state index | -0.46 | 0.07 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.17 | -0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 156.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.18 | 1.16 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.13 | 0.86 |