← Premier League 2025-26 · Tue, Jan 6, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Harrington
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nott'm Forest win | 40% | 37% | 2.41 | fair |
| West Ham win | 32% | 35% | 3.05 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| West Ham +0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Nott'm Forest +0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 58% | 1.88 | value: +8% |
| Under | 48% | 42% | 2.02 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ (og) | Murillo · West Ham |
| 55' | ⚽ | Nicolás Domínguez · Nott'm Forest |
| 61' | 🟨 | Jean-Clair Todibo · West Ham |
| 89' | ⚽ (pen) | Morgan Gibbs-White · Nott'm Forest |
| 90' | 🟨 | Konstantinos Mavropanos · West Ham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kyle Walker-Peters · West Ham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 13 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Ham | Nott'm Forest |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | London Stadium |
| coach days | 189.00 | 127.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 2.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1563.27 | 1647.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -36.08 | -20.29 |
| eye test v1 | -0.85 | -0.02 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.50 | 63.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.62 |
| league points | 14.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 17.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 3.21 | 3.31 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.17 | -0.12 |
| solidity v1 | -1.35 | 0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 26.73 | 25.60 |
| state index | -1.02 | -0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.22 | -0.39 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| travel km | — | 175.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.84 | 1.23 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.05 | 1.20 |