← Premier League 2025-26 · Sun, Jan 4, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Oliver
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 65% | 74% | 1.50 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 19% | 12% | 5.05 | fair |
| Chelsea win | 16% | 15% | 6.35 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea −1.25 | 52% | 1.91 |
| Man City −1.25 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 70% | 71% | 1.38 | fair |
| Under | 30% | 29% | 3.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 42' | ⚽ | Tijjani Reijnders · Man City |
| 52' | 🟨 | Reece James · Chelsea |
| 54' | 🟨 | Rúben Dias · Man City |
| 79' | 🟨 | Matheus Nunes · Man City |
| 79' | 🟨 | Liam Delap · Chelsea |
| 90' | 🟨 | Bernardo Silva · Man City |
| 90' | 🟨 | Enzo Fernández · Chelsea |
| 90' | ⚽ | Enzo Fernández · Chelsea |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Man City | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Etihad Stadium |
| coach days | 3474.00 | 156.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.64 | 3.45 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1927.75 | 1809.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.58 | -18.97 |
| eye test v1 | 1.13 | 0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.41 | -0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.10 | 48.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 0.85 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.72 |
| league points | 41.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 88.20 | 86.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.80 | 58.40 |
| rest days | 2.90 | 4.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.46 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 2.16 | 1.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.55 | 1.22 |
| solidity v1 | 0.93 | -0.81 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 26.33 | 23.92 |
| state index | 1.67 | 0.45 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.31 | 0.83 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 260.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.16 | 1.88 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.92 | 1.85 |