← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, Jan 3, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: C. Kavanagh
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 63% | 68% | 1.53 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 21% | 22% | 4.55 | fair |
| Bournemouth win | 16% | 10% | 6.30 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal +1 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Bournemouth +1 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 55% | 1.65 | fair |
| Under | 41% | 45% | 2.31 | value: +5% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Evanilson · Bournemouth |
| 16' | ⚽ | Gabriel Magalhães · Arsenal |
| 26' | 🟨 | Antoine Semenyo · Bournemouth |
| 54' | ⚽ | Declan Rice · Arsenal |
| 70' | 🟨 | Martín Zubimendi · Arsenal |
| 71' | ⚽ | Declan Rice · Arsenal |
| 76' | ⚽ | Eli Junior Kroupi · Bournemouth |
| 80' | 🟨 | Eli Junior Kroupi · Bournemouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Amine Adli · Bournemouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bournemouth | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.78 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Vitality Stadium |
| coach days | 917.00 | 186.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 1.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.10 | 1.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.70 |
| elo | 1664.46 | 1975.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -6.12 | 29.19 |
| eye test v1 | 1.09 | 1.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.09 | -0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.80 | 55.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.74 |
| league points | 23.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 86.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 3.92 | 3.89 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 2.37 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 9.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 18.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.07 | 1.58 |
| solidity v1 | -1.21 | 0.88 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 25.45 | 27.04 |
| state index | -0.21 | 1.73 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.23 | -0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| travel km | — | 151.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 2.13 | 1.04 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.13 | 2.45 |