← Premier League 2025-26 · Tue, Dec 30, 08:15 PM UTC · ref: D. England
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 70% | 69% | 1.37 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 18% | 5.50 | fair |
| Aston Villa win | 12% | 13% | 8.25 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal −1.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Aston Villa −1.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 61% | 1.73 | value: +6% |
| Under | 44% | 39% | 2.20 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Mikel Merino · Arsenal |
| 45' | 🟨 | Morgan Rogers · Aston Villa |
| 48' | ⚽ | Gabriel Magalhães · Arsenal |
| 52' | ⚽ | Martín Zubimendi · Arsenal |
| 69' | ⚽ | Leandro Trossard · Arsenal |
| 78' | ⚽ | Gabriel Jesus · Arsenal |
| 79' | 🟨 | Gabriel Jesus · Arsenal |
| 81' | 🟨 | Lamare Bogarde · Aston Villa |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ollie Watkins · Aston Villa |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ollie Watkins · Aston Villa |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 11 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 18 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arsenal | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.54 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.52 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | Emirates Stadium |
| coach days | 182.00 | 1155.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.24 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 1.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1966.32 | 1841.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.40 | 42.90 |
| eye test v1 | 1.17 | 0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.92 | -0.32 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.90 | 61.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.80 |
| league points | 42.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.40 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.20 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 3.22 | 3.11 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 2.33 | 2.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 9.20 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.60 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.48 | 0.22 |
| solidity v1 | 0.76 | -0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 26.65 | 28.02 |
| state index | 1.68 | 1.33 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| travel km | — | 161.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.94 | 1.46 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 2.22 | 1.21 |