← Premier League 2025-26 · Tue, Dec 30, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Salisbury
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton win | 46% | 48% | 2.12 | fair |
| West Ham win | 28% | 32% | 3.53 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 26% | 20% | 3.70 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Brighton +0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| West Ham +0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 58% | 1.75 | fair |
| Under | 45% | 42% | 2.19 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Jarrod Bowen · West Ham |
| 13' | 🟨 | Jarrod Bowen · West Ham |
| 32' | ⚽ (pen) | Danny Welbeck · Brighton |
| 37' | 🟨 | Mateus Fernandes · West Ham |
| 37' | 🟨 | Danny Welbeck · Brighton |
| 42' | 🟨 | James Milner · Brighton |
| 45' | 🟨 | Max Kilman · West Ham |
| 45' | 🟨 | Lewis Dunk · Brighton |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Lucas Paquetá · West Ham |
| 61' | ⚽ | Joël Veltman · Brighton |
| 84' | 🟨 |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 16 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 18 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | West Ham | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| venue | London Stadium |
| Charalampos Kostoulas · Brighton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jan Paul van Hecke · Brighton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 182.00 | 577.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.33 | 2.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1580.47 | 1713.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.53 | -31.91 |
| eye test v1 | -0.50 | 0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | -0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.00 | 55.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.73 |
| league points | 13.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 15.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 85.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 37.20 | 55.80 |
| rest days | 3.19 | 3.19 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.72 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | -1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.81 | 0.91 |
| solidity v1 | -0.59 | -1.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.60 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 26.15 | 24.47 |
| state index | -0.48 | -0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.97 | 0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 74.80 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.61 | 1.98 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 0.97 | 1.59 |