← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Bankes
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford win | 42% | 41% | 2.32 | fair |
| Bournemouth win | 30% | 36% | 3.20 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 28% | 23% | 3.59 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth −0.25 | 51% | 1.91 |
| Brentford −0.25 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 59% | 1.93 | value: +15% |
| Under | 49% | 41% | 2.05 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Kevin Schade · Brentford |
| 39' | ⚽ (og) | Đorđe Petrović · Brentford |
| 51' | ⚽ | Kevin Schade · Brentford |
| 75' | 🟨 | Mathias Jensen · Brentford |
| 75' | ⚽ | Antoine Semenyo · Bournemouth |
| 82' | 🟨 | Michael Kayode · Brentford |
| 82' | 🟨 | Justin Kluivert · Bournemouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marcus Tavernier · Bournemouth |
| 90' | ⚽ | Kevin Schade · Brentford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 20 |
| 7 | On target | 10 |
| 2 | Corners | 15 |
| 9 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Brentford | Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.79 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Brentford Community Stadium |
| coach days | 179.00 | 910.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 2.47 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1686.16 | 1672.80 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.34 | -22.47 |
| eye test v1 | -0.70 | 0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.34 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.10 | 49.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.65 |
| league points | 23.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.01 | 0.04 |
| solidity v1 | -0.16 | -0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 25.19 | 26.04 |
| state index | 0.38 | -0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.86 | -0.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.11 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 137.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.54 | 1.48 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.14 | 1.39 |