← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 27, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Brooks
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal win | 72% | 69% | 1.33 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 20% | 5.65 | value: +11% |
| Brighton win | 11% | 11% | 9.70 | value: +7% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal −1.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Brighton −1.5 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 67% | 1.58 | value: +6% |
| Under | 39% | 33% | 2.50 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | ⚽ | Martin Ødegaard · Arsenal |
| 45' | 🟨 | Bart Verbruggen · Brighton |
| 50' | 🟨 | Lewis Dunk · Brighton |
| 52' | ⚽ (og) | Georginio Rutter · Arsenal |
| 56' | 🟨 | Diego Coppola · Brighton |
| 64' | ⚽ | Diego Gómez · Brighton |
| 69' | 🟨 | Myles Lewis-Skelly · Arsenal |
| 90' | 🟨 | Piero Hincapié · Arsenal |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 24 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 7 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Arsenal | Brighton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Emirates Stadium |
| coach days | 179.00 | 574.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 2.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1963.41 | 1716.35 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.59 | -13.61 |
| eye test v1 | 1.04 | 0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.66 | -0.42 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.30 | 54.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.18 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.73 |
| league points | 39.00 | 24.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.40 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.00 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 6.79 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 2.29 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.39 | 1.05 |
| solidity v1 | 1.04 | -0.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.60 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.42 | 24.40 |
| state index | 1.68 | 0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.71 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 77.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 0.84 | 1.54 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.96 | 1.82 |