← Premier League 2025-26 · Mon, Dec 22, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Taylor
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham win | 36% | 39% | 2.66 | value: +3% |
| Nott'm Forest win | 35% | 27% | 2.83 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 34% | 3.35 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fulham +0 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Nott'm Forest +0 | 49% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 52% | 1.94 | fair |
| Under | 50% | 48% | 1.96 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 45' | 🟨 | Raúl Jiménez · Fulham |
| 45' | 🟨 | John Victor · Nott'm Forest |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Raúl Jiménez · Fulham |
| 56' | 🟨 | Sander Berge · Fulham |
| 70' | 🟨 | Murillo · Nott'm Forest |
| 77' | 🟨 | Harry Wilson · Fulham |
| 82' | 🟨 | Jorge Cuenca · Fulham |
| 83' | 🟨 | Nikola Milenković · Nott'm Forest |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joachim Andersen · Fulham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nicolás Domínguez · Nott'm Forest |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 12 |
| 1 | On target | 2 |
| 1 | Corners | 5 |
| 5 | Fouls | 9 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fulham | Nott'm Forest |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.50 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Craven Cottage |
| coach days | 1635.00 | 112.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.41 | 2.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1645.76 | 1684.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.97 | 6.08 |
| eye test v1 | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.50 | 55.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | — |
| league points | 20.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.40 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 53.20 |
| rest days | 9.10 | 8.25 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| solidity v1 | -0.27 | 0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 28.98 | 25.29 |
| state index | 0.36 | 0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.51 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| travel km | — | 174.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.46 | 1.02 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.30 | 1.23 |