← Premier League 2025-26 · Sat, Dec 20, 08:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Bramall
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace win | 36% | 27% | 2.74 | fair |
| Leeds win | 33% | 39% | 2.93 | value: +15% |
| Draw | 31% | 33% | 3.11 | value: +4% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace +0 | 52% | 1.89 |
| Leeds +0 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 61% | 54% | 1.57 | fair |
| Over | 39% | 46% | 2.53 | value: +16% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | ⚽ | Dominic Calvert-Lewin · Leeds |
| 42' | 🟨 | Maxence Lacroix · Crystal Palace |
| 45' | 🟨 | Marc Guéhi · Crystal Palace |
| 45' | ⚽ | Dominic Calvert-Lewin · Leeds |
| 60' | ⚽ | Ethan Ampadu · Leeds |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lucas Perri · Leeds |
| 90' | 🟨 | Adam Wharton · Crystal Palace |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Justin Devenny · Crystal Palace |
| 90' | ⚽ | Anton Stach · Leeds |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 9 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 5 |
| 5 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Leeds | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.50 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.81 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| venue | Elland Road |
| coach days | 903.00 | 688.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 2.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1645.69 | 1736.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.13 | 6.31 |
| eye test v1 | 0.53 | 0.97 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.36 | 0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.50 | 56.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.74 |
| league points | 16.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.60 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 6.15 | 2.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.15 | 0.42 |
| solidity v1 | -0.58 | 0.99 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 26.73 | 24.84 |
| state index | 0.32 | 0.54 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.37 | -0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.30 |
| travel km | — | 283.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| xg against avg (last 5) | 1.65 | 0.71 |
| xg for avg (last 5) | 1.83 | 1.92 |